My 2011 Oscar picks and predictions
The Academy Awards are tonight and this year I’ve seen 8 out of the 10 Best Picture nominees, as well as quite a few of the films nominated in other categories. So in these hours leading up to the ceremony, I offer my personal Oscar picks (the films I think should win and that I personally liked the best) as well as my predictions for who I think will actually win, given the Academy’s voting history. You’ll see they often line up, but sometimes do not.
On with the show…
Best Picture
Ricky’s Pick: The Social Network and Toy Story 3
Oscar Prediction: The King’s Speech
Out of the eight Best Picture nominees I saw (I didn’t see The Kids are All Right or Winter’s Bone), it’s tough to choose between The Social Network and Toy Story 3 as a favorite, because I enjoyed them both for entirely different reasons. The Social Network is the first movie to ever successfully capture the computer world without inserting unnecessary beeps, elite hackers, or The Matrix. It’s a world I can relate to quite closely, having gone to college for computer science and even going to the same high school as Eduardo Saverin, though I never knew him as he was a few years behind me. And that’s what picking the winners of any of these categories comes down to for me: ability to personally connect. If I can’t feel what the characters are feeling, then the movie is a dud for me.
While The Social Network reminds me of my college years, Toy Story 3 connects me to both my childhood and the process of leaving for college. It all hits closely to home, especially with the tear-jerking finale. Plus, I’m already a Disney fan and it’s hard not to root for it.
The King’s Speech is an actor’s movie and a well-performed one. But I can’t relate to it at all. It’s about British royalty, the social elite, and speech therapy. Sure there are some friendship themes in there that all can relate to, but in the end I just didn’t find myself caring enough about the characters and I found the ending to be entirely unsatisfying. It’s an interesting story, especially given that it’s (mostly) true, but that’s all. However, it’s exactly the type of movie that the Academy likes to award Best Picture to. I hope they don’t, but I think they will.
Here is my overall ranking of the Best Picture nominated films:
1. The Social Network
2. Toy Story 3
3. Black Swan
4. 127 Hours
5. The Fighter
6. True Grit
7. The King’s Speech
8. Inception
As I said above, I didn’t see The Kids Are All Right or Winter’s Bone.
Actor in a Leading Role
Ricky’s Pick: Colin Firth
Oscar Prediction: Colin Firth
Despite my feelings about The King’s Speech as a film, Colin Firth did a wonderful job in his role. He conquered the dialogue, speech impediment and all. Jessie Eisenberg certainly had a few tongue twisters with Aaron Sorkin’s dialogue in The Social Network, but ultimately he was still Jesse Eisenberg. Firth transformed himself into the titular King.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Ricky’s Pick: Christian Bale
Oscar Prediction: Christian Bale
The Fighter was the best boxing movie I’ve ever seen, simply because it wasn’t a movie about boxing. Sure there was some fighting going on, but in the end I felt like the movie was about Christian Bale’s character and his battle with the world around him. I’m honestly surprised it’s a “supporting role” as I felt like he was the star of the movie, not Mark Wahlberg. He took audiences through a believable range of emotions, high and low, and deserves the award.
Actress in a Leading Role
Ricky’s Pick: Natalie Portman
Oscar Prediction: Natalie Portman
This one’s a tough call as I haven’t seen the other films for which the actresses are nominated. So I default to Portman, who really did an outstanding job in Black Swan, with spot-on facial expressions throughout many intense, and sometimes quite personal, scenes. Her character morphed from meek and reserved in the beginning to a maniac in the end and she took us through all the steps in-between.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Ricky’s Pick: Hailee Steinfeld
Oscar Prediction: Hailee Steinfeld
Like Bale’s nomination, I’m surprised Steinfeld is only up for a “supporting role” Oscar. She’s in nearly every scene in the film, beginning to end. Her character, unfortunately, is rather one-dimensional, rarely showing any traits other than a “go get ‘em” attitude. But at 14, she plays the character impressively, like a seasoned professional.
Animated Feature Film
Ricky’s Pick: Toy Story 3
Oscar Prediction: Toy Story 3
Pixar’s dominance of this category continues. Toy Story 3 is an incredible film, possibly the best of the series. Nothing more needs to be said.
Art Direction
Ricky’s Pick: Alice in Wonderland
Oscar Prediction: The King’s Speech
The Academy loves to reward period pieces in Art Direction, specially British ones. Even though The King’s Speech takes place less than 100 years ago, I think it will still win. Personally, I enjoyed the choices made to create the visual style of Alice in Wonderland, but that’s because I’m a Tim Burton fan.
Cinematography
Ricky’s Pick: The Social Network
Oscar Prediction: Black Swan
This is a tough choice. Each film offers an entirely different approach to cinematography. Ultimately, The Social Network thrives in its simplicity, with practical lighting and a real-world feel to every scene. Black Swan takes it the other direction offering a stage production feel, appropriate for its content. I preferred the former, but I think the latter will win.
Costume Design
Ricky’s Pick: Alice in Wonderland
Oscar Prediction: Alice in Wonderland
Alice’s variety of dresses in Alice in Wonderland should win an Oscar alone. They’re brilliant.
Directing
Ricky’s Pick: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Oscar Prediction: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
The winner of the Academy Award for Best Director is notoriously difficult to predict, as the role of director has so many facets to consider. If it’s all about how well the director can pull performances from his or her actors, then Tom Hooper should win for creating a simple movie that’s still interesting based on performances alone. But if it’s about how well the director can pull the whole film together, then David Fincher should win for his overall ability to create an enthralling movie about Facebook and a bunch of Harvard computer nerds, something that shouldn’t have been possible.
Documentary Feature
Ricky’s Pick: N/A
Oscar Prediction: Waste Land
I haven’t seen any of these, so my prediction is just a guess.
Documentary Short Subject
Ricky’s Pick: N/A
Oscar Prediction: Strangers No More
Again, I haven’t seen any of these, so my prediction is just a guess.
Film Editing
Ricky’s Pick: Black Swan
Oscar Prediction: The Social Network
I flipped my pick for cinematography here. The editing in Black Swan really pulled the movie together, placing interesting angles together for exactly the amount of time they needed to be seen to shape the pace of the film. But I think The Social Network will win for its simplicity and consistent fast pace throughout.
Foreign Language Film
Ricky’s Pick: N/A
Oscar Prediction: Biutiful
Again, I haven’t seen any of these, so my prediction is just a guess based on the fact that Biutiful is the only one I’ve heard of.
Makeup
Ricky’s Pick: The Wolfman
Oscar Prediction: The Wolfman
The three films nominated this year for Best Makeup are not terribly interesting, so I went with the horror/thriller genre.
Music (Original Score)
Ricky’s Pick: The Social Network
Oscar Prediction: The King’s Speech
I’m a Nine Inch Nails fan, so the score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Finch for The Social Network was the perfect film score for me. But I think the Academy will see it differently, offering The King’s Speech the award for a more traditional (and quite effective) score. But I am happy Reznor and Finch won the Golden Globe.
Music (Original Song)
Ricky’s Pick: “I See the Light” from Tangled
Oscar Prediction: “Coming Home” from Country Strong
This is another tough call, as what I personally feel differs greatly from what I think the Academy likes to give awards to. “I See the Light” is a great song and a wonderful addition to the vast Disney library. But my gut tells me “Coming Home” will win.
Short Film (Animated)
Ricky’s Pick: Day & Night
Oscar Prediction: Day & Night
This is Pixar’s best animated short ever, especially when viewed in 3D. It must win.
Short Film (Live Action)
Ricky’s Pick: N/A
Oscar Prediction: The Confession
Didn’t see any of them, just a guess.
Sound Editing
Ricky’s Pick: Tron: Legacy
Oscar Prediction: Inception
I’m a big Tron: Legacy fan and think it deserves a few more Oscar nods (especially for Daft Punk’s score), so I have to choose it as the personal winner for its only nominated category. With that said, I think Inception, which is way overhyped, will win this category.
Sound Mixing
Ricky’s Pick: The Social Network
Oscar Prediction: The Social Network
Each line of dialogue for The Social Network was recorded in countless takes with subtle variations and often stitched together word-by-word or sometimes even replacing syllables to make it all “perfect.” And for that, The Social Network will win.
Visual Effects
Ricky’s Pick: Inception
Oscar Prediction: Inception
While I’m not a fan of Inception as a whole, I do think the effects furthered the story. Moreover, I couldn’t figure out how a few of them were done, which is an impressive feat that deserves an Oscar.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Ricky’s Pick: The Social Network
Oscar Prediction: The Social Network
Aaron Sorkin’s mile-a-minute dialogue is practically a shoe-in for this award. This film has 4 hours worth of dialogue packed into 2 hours of screen time and yet somehow every single word is necessary.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Ricky’s Pick: The King’s Speech
Oscar Prediction: The King’s Speech
A movie about a speech needs good writing, and The King’s Speech certainly has just that. Without great writing, The King’s Speech would have fallen horribly flat, but instead it kept my interest throughout the film. And if Inception wins this category, I will lose all faith in the Academy and its voters. That film is simply not thought-provoking or “mind blowing.” I wasn’t impressed by its layered storytelling and felt that its script left huge plot holes and was missing necessary details to establish the world and its characters. It’s an overrated action movie that doesn’t deserve the attention it received.
And there you have it. I’ll certainly tune in tonight to see if any of my predictions come true!
Add your Oscar picks in the comments below!
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