‘Very active’ hurricane season predicted… right. Uh huh.
From yahoo.com:
The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be “very active,” with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday.
Forecaster William Gray said he expects 17 named storms in all this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
I don’t understand why they release these “predictions” at all. They are very rarely even remotely correct, and when they are, it’s generally a coincidence. Last year they predicted doom and gloom for the gulf areas (including here in Florida) and we barely got any heavy wind and rain the whole season. It’s becoming like the boy calling wolf… eventually everyone will stop listening to them. I know I have.
Why can’t they just come out and say, “We have no idea what’s going to happen in this, or any other, hurricane season. We’ll tell you when one is coming a few days before, but even then we’re not sure of the path. We’ll certainly let you know when it’s a few minutes from hitting you though.”
I’m tired of the excessive panicking caused by these predictions, especially when it comes to “predicting” the paths of hurricanes. They have been wrong so many times. Yes, it’s better to be safe than sorry… but not when it means storming the local stores and fighting over water and lumber only to find that the storm dissipates or goes somewhere else.
If there are going to be predictions they should at least be accurate occasionally.
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Ricky, it is amazing that they feel they must “forecast” long range storm patterns. Living in Oklahoma, we get some pretty intense storm systems. This is part of “Tornado Alley”. We can have upwards of 100 tornadoes in a months time. Yet at no time do you hear the seasoned weather professionals saying, “This will be a heavy tornado producing year,” or, “Well it looks like we will have a light May this year.”
I understand that hurricanes are larger and less prone to the immediate changes we experience out on the plains, but I have to agree: this is irresponsible on the part of professionals.
I totally agree with you.
What’s even more annoying is that insurance companies use these predictions to justify their hikes in prices for those of us living along the eastern seaboard.